Font Size: a A A

The Analysis Of Impact Rmb Real Effective Exchange Rate On Import And Export Business

Posted on:2011-05-08Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Z Y GaoFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360308953551Subject:MBA of Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The Chinese import and export industries, experienced the RMB exchange rate reform in 2005 and world financial crisis in 2008, are suffering the slow down of world economy and increasing trade friction nowadays. However, after participating in the World Trade Organization, China had its trade surplus and foreign exchange to keep increasing dramtically. Reacting on such double-surplus issue, western countries like USA and Japan required RMB to appreciate so that they can relieve their internal economies'problems. This thesis is mainly about the RMB appreciation impact on Chinese import and export. Firstly, the definition of exchange rate and the impact theory of trade balance are introduced. Secondly, followed by the summary of the RMB exchange rate history and Chinese international trade statistics, a basic model is set up for empirial test by using quarterly data of Chinese import and export volume and real effective exchange rate from 2002 to 2008. The conclusion is that RMB real effective exchange rate doesn't have significant impact on Chinese double-surplus problems. The real reason is processing trade model by foreign direct investment in China. Finally, according to the theoretical and empirial analysis, three policy suggestions are recommended for reference: 1. The strategy of"going out"and enlarge the real needs of foreign exchange should be encouraged for Chinese enterprises. 2. Chinese industrial structure should be improved and building nationality brands should be mainly enhanced. 3. Appropriate monetary policy should be applied to avoid repeating the history of Japan.
Keywords/Search Tags:Real Effective Exchange Rate, Elasticity Theory, Cointegration Analysis, Vector AutoRegression Model
PDF Full Text Request
Related items