The Traits Of The Periodic Fluctuation Of Economy And Associated Response Strategies In Anhui Province

Periodic fluctuation is the main form of manifestation of economic fluctuations,which is the general phenomenon of economic operation.First, based on the model of internal transmit and external impact, this paper analyzed the formation of Anhui's economic cycle. On this basis, using Anhui's monthly data from 1997 to 2007, the paper tested the traits of the periodic fluctuation of Anhui's economic under the principal component analysis. We studied the influential factors of Anhui's economic cycle and then deducted the measures to promote Anhui's economy with better-fast growth.The results showed that: (1) The period of expansion was longer than the period of contraction in Anhui. (2)The fixed asset investment served an important influential fact in the Anhui's economic cycle. The improper structure of the fixed asset investment lacked of pulling force to develop the economy. (3)The rural and urban residents, especially the rural residents had low incomes and limited consumption, so the multiple-added mechanism could not play the more important role in the growth of the economy. (4) The improper of the industrial structure caused a low input-output radio which hindered the development of the economy.