China To Japanese Fruits And Vegetables Export Trade Risk And Early Warning Research

The agricultural product export trade early warning is mainly refers to through carring on the continual monitoring system to the main trading countries on agricultural trade and national economic situation , in advance of the agricultural exports of different countries or regions of the state police to issue the appropriate degree of prediction of risk of trade barriers so that our export enterprises, products and other risks or hazards from one kind of security measures taken.In view of the fact that fruit and vegetable exports to Japan in China's foreign trade in agricultural products plays an important role and to the Japanese fruits and vegetables export trade in the growing risk of trade issues, this article conducts the research day by day on our country to the Japanese fruits and vegetables export trade risk early warning system, provides the guard risk for fruit and vegetable enterprises and related risk management departments to prevent the theoretical and the practical means.In this paper, the characteristics of China's fruit and vegetable export trade and problems as the starting point of presence in the fruit and vegetable exports, the market risk and policy risk. According to market risks and policy risks specific form of construction and fruit and vegetable export trade risk factors corresponding to the early warning indicator system. Alarm indicators which fruit and vegetable export trade to Japan; warning signs of indicators including, fruit and vegetable exports combined average price of domestic output of vegetables, fruit and vegetable self-sufficiency rate in Japan, the Sino-Japanese trade, and poor fruit and vegetable exports accounted for the Japanese market share of 5 indicators variables.In this paper, KLR signals based on fruit and vegetable export trade of information law, the risk of early-warning model, the time difference correlation analysis method to choose the final predictive variables; application of interval analysis division of the Police degrees, and set the corresponding alarm limit L, and the correlation coefficient method to determine the weight of each factor in predictive, then KLR signal analysis method for early warning model, and validation results show that the models were tested and effective rate was 62.5%, indicating that the risk of export trade of fruits and vegetables can be an early warning.