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The Research On The Mutual Relationship Of The Credit Fluctuation And The Price Fluctuation In The Real Estate

Posted on:2011-02-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C ZhongFull Text:PDF
GTID:2189360308982924Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The real estate industry is an important industry in national economy in a country. The real estate industry has developed rapidly in our country in recent years, it has become more and more important in national economy. The importance of the real industry has gone further and become a pillar industry in the national economy development as the acceleration of urbanization process. Its development has not only been related to the development of the entire national economy, but also related to the vital interests of the masses. The price of the houses has entered into a rising channel since 2002 in China, accompanied with the rapid increase of the credit release of the real estate. The real estate belongs to capital-intensive industry and whether the support of credit from bank is suitable can generate a great impact on the price of house, in turn, the price of house also has affected the mortgage credit amount based on the real estate value, the two has affected each other and made an impact on the development of the national economy and the life of masses. The article mainly takes research on the causal relationship and numerical relationship of the mutual influence of the two and draws the appropriate conclusions and policy recommendations according to the fact of the synchronous fluctuation of the price and the bank credit. The paper describes the meaning of the volatility of the price, the volatility of the credit, the influencing factor and their impact firstly, and introduces the measure of its volatility and the academic results at home and abroad. After that, the paper has made a detailed analysis the mutual interaction mechanisms of the two and has analyzed the main factors which affect the real estate price. Then we has made an empirical analysis on the basis and got the relevant conclusions:the standard deviation of the volatility rate of the real estate price will increase 1.409-fold when the standard deviation of the credit funds increased 1-fold; the standard deviation of the volatility rate of the real estate price will decline 0.0763-fold when the standard deviation of the floor space completed of the real estate increase 1-fold; the standard deviation of the volatility rate of the real estate price will increase 1-fold when the standard deviation of the real estate base price increase 1-fold. The regression result of the model indicates that the real estate credit has great influence on the fluctuation of the price and it also proves the usefulness of the Carey model. We establish vector error correction model and self-regression model according to the nature of the time series of the actual data for analysis from another point of view. The error correction model (ECM) demonstrates that the house price has not been affected by the credit funds in current period, but also been affected by the long-run equilibrium trend. Specifically, the change of 1% of the credit funds in short term will lead to the change of 0.21% of the house price in the same direction, while, the deviation of house price from long-term equilibrium will pull the non-equilibrium state back to equilibrium state with the adjustment intensity of-0.293 in the short-term fluctuations. Further, we use the VAR model to analyze the house price in the lag period and the influence of the credit, and we can see that the house price in the lag period and the credit really have a great influence on the price in current period and the coefficients respectively has reached to 0.62 and 0.45.The Granger causality test has proved the theory result of the mutual influence of the two. The test shows that the two are the Granger reason and result. And the impulse response function has given the direction of the impact, the impact with the same direction shows that the two are mutually reinforcing and the result is consistent with the theoretical analysis. Finally, the article gives corresponding policy recommendations for reference according to the relationship of mutual interaction of the two and some important affecting factors.
Keywords/Search Tags:price fluctuation in the real estate, credit volatility in the real estate, Carey model, error correction model (ECM), vector auto regression model (VAR)
PDF Full Text Request
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