The Theoretical And Positive Analysis On The Motivation Of Sale Of Non-tradable Shares Of Listed Company

The Split-share Structure Reform has made it possible for unlisted restricted shares to enter the secondary market gradually, which helps China's share market undergo a full circulation. China's capital market valuation system, which was originally led by financial capital, will have huge changes. The industrial capital will play a greater role in the coming years.According to the statistics data of the correlation research institutions,we find that the market to some extent has the wrong oppinion on the nontradable stock.How will the pattern of behavior of the the nontradable stock develop in the future?To take the one-way coordinated selling as the principal thing,or to be more complicated?This is a question deserving our research.The paper divides the motivation of the sale of non-tradable shares into to two classes:the speculative motive and the flowability motive,and descripes the discriminate system of the two motives by some financial index. The article concludes that the non-tradable shares designated by industry capital are changing the old valuation system,by the game thoery of the industry capital and the finance capital.It also concludes that the prisoner's dilemma of the industry capital and the finance capital can be solved by repetitious game thoeries.The game thoery in the capital market of the industry capital and the finance capital can finally gain double win only by coorperation or searching the road to harmony.The paper analyzes the characteristics of restricted shares reduction on the shares market in different ways such as comparative, cluster and comprehensive analysis. Five key indicators of the ownership structure, profitability,valuation levels,the volatility rate of shares price and index systems of macroeconomics are concluded. Then the article demonstrates the situation of the restricted shares reduction in the period between June 2008 and June 2009,proves the validity of the indexes,and concludes that the ownership structure, the volatility rate of shares price and the index systems of macroeconomics have noticeable influence on the motivition of the restricted shares reduction.But the profitability and valuation levels are not important indexes when considering the restricted shares reduction.The result of the demonstation indicates that:China's stock market have obvious tendencies of the policies,and submited some correlative policy proposal after summarizing the full text.In research methods,the article begins with the classification of the motivation of sale of non-tradable shares,builds econometric analysis model,and enters the sample.The positive analysis inspects the motivation from macro level and minuette,so from this point the research has some practical significance.Some deficiency aspects that the article has:Firstly,as the difficult of data compilation and the confine of time span,the insufficient of sample capacity exsits in the demonstration model. Secondly,the indexes aren't sufficiently considered in the model as some influence factors cannot be well quantized.