Establishment Of Gas Prediction Model And Calculation Of Carbon Emission Based On Geological Controlling Factors

The main object in this paper is Coal seam gas. To calculate the carbon emissions of Song Zao mining area, four mathematical prediction models were established which were gas component spectrum prediction model and gas remaining ingredients spectral forecast model and coal gas content prediction model and residual gas content prediction model. All of these models were based on a large amount of experimental data and the multiple linear regression theory of the mathematical and statistical methods. And these thesises provided a new method for calculating the carbon emissions.The most important geological factors were summarized through analyzing the theories of coal seam gas and residual gas which were affecting the coal seam gas and residual gas component spectrum.The factors including the caol seam depth,structure, roof and floor rock properties, depositional environment, coal seam thickness and coal properties.As quantified the geological and established the gas component spectrums with multivariate linear regression model,we got the coal seam gas and the residual gas ingredients spectral predicted model.The research found that the caol seam depth,structure, metamorphic grade,ash and fixed carbon content is the main factors of the methane content in the coal seam gas;And the main factors of the carbon dioxide content in the coal seam gas were the factors of the caol seam depth,structure, metamorphic grade and water except the factors of roof and floor rock properties, coal seam thickness; Analysis showed that metamorphic grade(maximum vitrinite reflectance) and volatile and ash and fixed carbon were the main factors that affect the content of methane in residual gas,however the water is also a factor affect the carbon dioxide content except the four factors that was related before.This paper summarized the factors that affected the residual gas content including the exposure time in the underground coal, metamorphic grade and coal surface area and coal particle size.By analyzing the relationship of residual gas content and the volatile, the way of calculating the residual gas content was established based on the data of the volatile.For the coal seam content,samely,regarded maximum vitrinite reflectance and roof rock properties and structure and volatile and ash were the main factors by the way of multiple linear regression. Based on the five factors above, the establishment of coalbed gas content was showed in this thesis.Based on the calculated model of carbaon emission and combined with gas compoent spectrum prediction model and the modle of residual gas content and coal seam gas,the ways was builted to quantifiy the geological factors area and calculate the carbon emissions of Song Zao.At last calculated the value of carbon emission of the research area. The values were that the content of methane is 58.21 million stere a year and carbon dioxide is 1.12 million stere a year.