A Analysis Based On Ridge Regression Of Pollutants Discharge Spatial Agglomeration And Their Impact Factors

Environmental pollution is a serious subject which can not be avoided. For in-depth study of pollutant discharge nationwide spatial agglomeration and its changes in the structure,we collect related various data of 21 points between 1992-2012. In addition, according to the IPAT model of pollution, we can disintegrate pollution density into population density, GDP per capita and emissions intensity. While considering uneven distribution of pollution and economic activities in sub-region, the Identity relationship does not exist between pollution density and these factors. For instance, if pollution emissions, population and economic activities agglomerating the same direction, it will aggravate the impact of pollution on environment and society and Induce adverse social events. Therefore, in this article, we propose the concept of cumulative average index, build the corresponding pollution emission density, population density and per capita GDP and pollution emission intensity index, use correlation analysis and ridge regression analysis method to research the pollution and its influence factors of 31 provinces of China in integrity and structure. Studies have shown that the total change of all kinds of factors and the changes of its distribution will influence the accumulation of pollutant density values. And the relations between pollution indicators and these factors are mostly positively associated. After eliminating the influence of changes in the amount, the changes in the distribution of each index also influence positively the cumulative average density value of emissions. All kinds of pollution index and structural change are also positively related. Therefore, in terms of the control of total pollutant amount, we can focus on enhancing the sustainable development of "soft power", namely, accelerate transformation of the mode of economic development and raise the level of human capital. And it can conclude that under the same total emissions, we can mitigate the negative impact of pollution on the environment and society through moderately decentralizing population and economic activity and reducing pollution intensity of per unit of GDP by technical innovation.