Traffic Accident Regulation Occurrence Regularities And Preventive Measures Of Guangzhou

Guangzhou is the first reform and opening up in china,whose economic develops very fast. The number of city's death is more than 1000 ,because of road traffic accidents,which is the first of the cities in china.It accounts for more than 90% of production safety accidents. Guangzhou road traffic safety has becomed a bottleneck which constraints to economic sustainable development iGuangzhou.Based on the traffic accident data from Guangzhou in 2006～2009 of domestic and abroad, road safety problems are researched and analyzed.Through the analysis of the great deal of accidents data, the paper studies the distribution regularities of road traffic accident by applying the statistic methods, including the time and space distribution, accident form distribution, climate distribution and so on., the distribution regularities of serious accidents in different forms are obtained.The influencing factors of roads traffic accident are studied. By researching the relationship between traffic accident and human,vehicle, road environment, the influence levels of the three factors on the occurring of accident are obtained. The relations among traffic accidents, road-alignment,pavement conditions, traffic volume and atrocious weather are studied, the relationship between the accidents and these external factors are gained.The paper introduces the meaning of road traffic accidents forecast in Guangzhou, the main requirements and forecasting procedures,comparing to the methods of regression analysis, pre-index smooth side of the law, neural network forecasting and gray prediction, using the final Gray forecast law.The light of gray characteristics of traffic accidents, GM(1,1) is employed to predict traffic accidents in Guangzhou and the outcome is examined.In the end, the guidelines and general procedures of prediction are introduced..And the elementary countermeasures for traffic safety are put forward.