Research & Development Of Short-term Load Forecasting On Distribution Network Based On Gis

Short-term load forecasting has a direct impact on electricity scheduling, electricity plans, programs and other important work of distribution network. It is an important part of the power automation management system. Improving the accuracy of short-term load forecasting can not only increase the security of the distribution network, but also improve its operation econmics.At present, domestic and foreign short-term load forecasting system based on the MIS much more than on the Geography Information System(GIS). GIS can combine the information of distribution network with figure reflecting geography position. The short-term load forecasting system based on the GIS can display the forecasting result in graphic. It has important academic value and practical significance. Users can more easily refer to the system.This paper researches short-term load forecasting based on distribution GIS, and develops short-term load forecasting system combined with GIS. This system has graphical user interface. There are many short-term load forecasting algorithm, this paper selects grey theory. This paper improves residual GM(1,1)model. In this way, the prediction accuracy can be improved. In addition to conventional chart to show the predicted result, this paper uses thematic map based on GIS. Thematic map displays the result in graphic. Thematic map for load forecasting is divided into: subsection thematic map, single value thematic map, columnar thematic map and pie thematic map. In the load data management module, this paper provieds increasing,deleting,changing,checking data and importing the bulk data from excel forms. In the module for pre-processing historical data, this paper uses the horizontal comparison method to identify and amend the abnormal data to ensure the accuracy of the data which are used in short-term pridiction.