Missile Tests In Multi-source Information Integration And Accuracy Of Identification

Test and evaluation technique plays a very important role in the whole missile development, and it runs through the whole process of developing and testing. How to accomplish the evaluation properly has been a key problem of the developing and testing department under the circumstances of small samples. In order to reduce the testing number, using various prior information has become indispensable, especially for the information of simulation and the special trajectory. The engineering application of Bayesian small sample technology just has great development under these demands, and now it has become a key technology of evaluation.The thesis mainly recounts the detail questions about Bayesian small sample theory and the important applications of the theory in engineering, and gives sufficient analyses and discussion of every step of accomplishing a precision evaluation when using small samples. In the thesis, the following issues are contained, such as how to get and denote the prior information, the consistence test of prior information and test samples of shooting range, the fusion of multi-source information, calculating of posterior probability, estimation with Bayesian approach, how to constitute test evaluation project of different performance and calculate the risks of both sides are contained, and at last a kind of applied method to calculate the effectiveness is given. The emphasis of Bayesian approach is how to obtain and use the prior information, especially, the simulation information. The modeling methods and technical approach of creating the virtual samples are partly discussed and the methods of programming are given. It's very important for the prior information to have a consistence test. Based on the characteristics of information, there are two kinds of consistence test methods: static method and dynamic one. Static consistence test method contains Rank Sum test, Mood test, etc. As for the dynamic consistency test methods, The emphasis is focused on spectrum analyses, such as maximum entropy spectrum estimation, etc. In engineering applications, constituting precision evaluation projects of diverse war indexes have been intensively analyzed, all steps of evaluation have been synthetically analyzed and applied to engineering: an integrated evaluation example is provided. In the end, suggestions on how to promote the application efficiency of missile system in the process of test evaluation are put forward.