Gray Theory And Its Applications In Power Load Forecasting

Load forecast is one of the important works for power system plan and operation. Because load forecast results affect directly generation, transmission and distribution of electricity energy, load and electricity demand in a planning period decide the development scale and the development speed of power system. So load and electricity energy forecast of power system is the most important task for the development planning of power system.The key work for electricity demand forecast is the choice of correct forecast methods. Although there are many methods to choose, to decide which method is more reliable is real a difficult task. The reliability of forecast result is not only decided by the forecast methods, but also decided by the reliability of the basic data. The second one is not soluble by theory studies, but some instructive knowledge for the first problem can be get through the analysis and compare for different forecast methods.The paper has studied the Grey System Forecast Models and its application in the electricity demand forecast deeply, mainly, in the following cases.1, This paper study basic theory and mathematics modeling based on grey model . It includes sequence operator and grey sequence generation, degree of grey incidence. superior analysis,2, The methods of parameter estimation and bad data detection and identification are applied in grey system modeling to improve its accuracy. The proposed methods can be used as data preparation techniques to detect bad data and fill the blank with a more accuracy value in an initial series. The modeling accuracy of grey system is greatly improved by such methods.3, This paper suggests two new methods of improving the precision of grey model. Correction of residual minimum error and Building N-addition grey model with correction of residual error.4, Part of grey system model is forecasted and analyzed...