Power System Equipment Defect Prediction

Defect management of electric equipments plays an important role in electric production.Using forecasting techniques, we can get forecasting values of future information by processing history data. By analyzing the current and history defect data of electric equipments, we can predict the occurrence of future defect, so the service units can make preparation in advance.Defect forecast of electric equipments is a very difficult work, there are a lot of cause related with the occurrence of defect, and now few has been done all over the country. This paper mainly makes researches on this field.In this paper, As considering decision support system (DSS) of the electric network as the work-platform of defect forecast, this paper does some researches on DSS, then analyzes on defect data is made.This paper proposes a defect forecast method which is based on time series analysis. It is simple and can predict the occurrence of the defect accurately. This method has also been proved in the test case of forecasting switch defect of one model of one company.