| The pepresentative market of Chinese golden spot has been bulit since less than a dacade. The gold-future market was bulit nearly three years ago. In recent years,China becomes a country which the demand and the supply of gold are large. It is worth studying on the price formation mechanism of the Chines gold-market. Whether the CME gold-future market as the powerful world market has impact on the Chinese gold price; Whether the price formation mechanism of the Chines gold-market is connected with the world gold price; how the mechanism of transimission on Chinese gold-spot price from the CME gold-future; which are the facters on the tranmission and so on. The questions are worth studying in order to improving the Chinese golden market.This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is introduction, it will mainly elaborated the background and meaning, this is the research purpose of the article, and the related concepts defining based on it. Then related documents for a review and brief comments.finally briefly on the analysis framework, writing thoughts, research methods and main points and innovation are introduced. The second chapter is the theoretical explanation on the transimission on the price of spot from the price of future. The theoretical explanation mainly on cost-ownership theory, the expected price theory, the cobweb model theory and the noise theory. The third chapter is the analysis on the pathway and mechanism of transimissiom on Chinese gold-spot price from CME gold-future price. Based on the pathway analysis, then analyse the mechanism on the basis of supply and demand, futures prices, Chinese domestic macroeconomic factors, facters that influen on the Chinese gold price from foreign gold prices etc. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis on the transimission on Chinese gold-spot price from CME gold-future price, the anslysise which is based on VAR models, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response measurement of decomposition and variance decomposition method. The fifth chapter is the suggestions on improving the formation of Chinese gold-spot price, the suggestions mainly about ruling out the interference on the price formation and to strengthen the construction of Chinese gold-future market.The key point of this article is that it is more good than harm that CME gold-future price conduct on Chinese gold-spot price at the present period. We can get the resistance exists in the mechanism of transimission on the Chinese gold-spot price from CME gold-future price through empirical research. The gold-future market in China has not effectively formed the function of the gold price discovery. These mainly due to the confounding factors in the formation of gold price in Chinese market and some defects in construction in the Chinese gold-future market. In view of the problems, the paper gives the following recommendations:optimizing the structure of participants; promoting competition in the gold-spot market; optimizing the structure of participants in gold-future market, researching the small specification in gold-future; opening electronic trading system in gold-future market; ralaxing system of trading. |
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