China's Consumer Econometric Research

After the policy of reform and opening-up, our national economy had gained fast development, people's standard of material life had improved. But, owing to the difference of resource and technology condition in every area, the level of productivity exist greater difference. The structure of resident consuming isn't same, then studying and analyzing the change direction of resident's consumption level and consumption structure has important meaning for developing consumable market, confirming economy strategy, establishing reasonable structure of productivity and economy, along with adjusting and leading resident's consumption direction. Firstly, this article retrospected achievements inside and outside research about consumption and demand function theory, It started from consumption and demand theory, used Bayesian method, deduced consumption and demand function linear regression model, combined with the whole country's urban and rural residents current situation, as well as pertinent consumption policy, adopted the economy serial data since reform and opening-up, from the point of view of fixing quantify and nature, studied the appeared instance and be likely to appear instance. Making further use of demonstrations simulated urban and rural residents consumption function model, estimated the parameter of consumption function model. It analyzed the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in the following, and calculated boundary consumption tendency, consumption structure changement tendency. Finally It gained some suggestions to accelerate economy increase and expand consumption demand:increase the drawing effection which the inner demand to economy increase; increase income, reduce income difference between urban and rural residents, improve the level of consumption; perfect social security system, strengthen residents'consumption confidence; enhance the leading to consumption, push scientific consume concept. The studied result will provide demonstration and theory base to establish the pertinent policy, this will provide important theory and practice meaning to keep our economy steady development.