Personal Housing Mortgage Loans To Credit Risk Research

Since the late 20th century, the Japanese bubble economic collapsed, the financial crisis occurred in Southeast Asia and the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis etc, which had brought seriously effect. It also caused the government around the world and the social public's high attention. The reasons which caused these economic crises were all correlated with the real estate finance risk directly or indirectly. Recently, the real estate, which played an important role in the rapid development of the national economy, is one of the fundamental industry of the national economy in China. Along with housing distribution system reform and the acceleration of urbanization in China, the traditional welfare housing system has turned to the housing assignment currency system. Personal housing mortgage loans also had experienced rapid growth. Credit risk is one of the most important risks in the personal housing mortgage loans. Therefore, researching the personal housing mortgage credit risks provided necessary basis for Chinese commercial banks to guard against credit risks, which has very vital significance.The paper focused on the credit risks of personal housing mortgage loans. Firstly, personal housing mortgage credit risk is of important theoretical and practical significance from the international background, as well as the domestic background. Through the literature review method introduced the related research perspective and theoretical basis. Secondly, after reviewing the four development stages of personal housing mortgage loans in China, it studied the status of real estate and personal housing mortgage loan by the methods of qualitative analysis, which payed more attention to analysis the situation of credit risks in the personal housing mortgage loans. Thirdly, this paper selected the KMV model, which put seven variables to paraphrase, chosen real estate industry leader enterprise in China-----in the year of 2010 Vanke A stock trading closing price volatility replaced options volatility, which was held by single family. Using Matlab software calculated the expected default frequency in different loan time limit. The empirical results showed that in other conditions being simultaneously, the longer the term of a loan, the smaller the expected default frequency. The study also showed that after reinterpreting the variables of the KMV model, it is applicable in some extent when estimating the expected default frequency of personal housing mortgage loans in China, which also provided the basis for China's commercial Banks in individual housing mortgage decisions. Finally, this paper put forward some operable suggestions on strengthening the personal housing mortgage credit risk prevention.