Chinese Population Movements. Interaction With The Rural Industrial Structure

Since the reform and opening, population migration has experienced a process from slow growth to rapid expansion. At first, this group is few in number. But since 1992, with enlargement of demand for urban labor and loosing of urban-rural binary system, huge interest gap between urban and rural drives a large number of farmers pouring into the city to work, forming a spectacular "migrant worker tide". Many aspects population migration has made on the urban and rural economic and social life, have aroused extensive concern from the government and academia.At the same time, with economic development, the rural industrial level is increasing,and the rise of township enterprises has led to the upgrading of it especially. Both population migration and the adjustment of rural industrial structure are associated with "issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers" and are very important subjects. Studies on each of them separately or on the impact one of them made on the other have been done a lot,while studies on the mutual relationship between the two subjects are scarce and the empirical analyses are comparatively rare either. If the two factors do not just have a common trend with the development of time, but also have a co-integrated or causative relationship in the long run,then by coordination,we can achieve our goal to improve the development of rural population and economy together.Therefore, empirical research on interaction between population migration and rural industry structure is an important issue put in front of us. It is just the research object of this paper, which is specifically divided into the following five parts.The first part is introduction. It includes background and significance of the research, domestic and foreign literature review, idea, method and technical route of the reaearch and characteristics and innovative points in this paper.The second part is theoretical basis for relationship analysis between population migration and rural industrial structure. It defines population migration and rural industrial structure. The definition of the former is given based on making a distinction between population migration and population mobility, according to the need of the research; the definition of the latter is divided into three levels(rural inner structure;among the fanning, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing; the first industry, the second industry and the third industry in the rural area).Then it introduced some theoretical basis and models concerning population migration and rural industrial structure.The third part is logic analysis on the mutual relationship between population migration and the three levels of rural industrial structure. It summarizes the current conditions of population migration and rural industrial structure. Then two-way logic analysis is done between population migration and inner structure of planting, and inner structure of big agriculture, and structure among the three industries in rural area. Analysis of the impact from the former to the latter is mainly based on the perspective that elements like technology, capital and information has changed during population migration, which results in the upgrading of rural industrial structure; while analysis of the impact from the latter to the former is mainly based the viewpoint that upgrading of the industrial structure could help distribute labor resources.The fourth part is empirical analysis of mutual relationship between population migration and the three levels of rural industrial structure. It is the main body of the whole text, relating to the successful implementation of the research target. According to the empirical analysis paradigm, the first step is to choose specific indexes to reflect the population migration and the level of rural industrial structure and to construct time series data sets, according to the census data and rural economic statistical data. Then with the help of econometric methods and the Eviews software,and according to logical step of stationarity test, cointegration test, error correction model and causality test, empirical analysis is made on the long-term equilibrium, short-term correction and granger causality of the two sets of data.The fifth part includes conclusions and policy suggestions. Conclusions are made according to the empirical analysis and policy recommendations are given from three aspects, which are correlative system construction, rural industry structure arrangement and government function. Based on this, problems for further research are put forward.