| A system dynamic model is constructed with a simulating software named Vensim for financial forecasting in PVC(Polyvinyl Chloride ) industry by studying the operation system and the financial statements of a typical public corporation in PVC field. The parameters of model are determined by studying the 2007-2009 statements of Zhongtai Chemistry Co., Ltd., getting information from investigations of die literature and insiders. Balance sheet, cash flow and income statements are obtained by running the model. It is verified by the balance relationship of asset being equal to the sum of debt and equity. And the cash flows of a new project of 1 million tons PVC during the simulating periods are obtained. By studying the financial influence of key parameters of sales income for the corporation and rate of operation for the new project, profound and abundant information is received. |
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