China's Banking System Fragility Of Empirical Research

Financial system is the lifeblood of morden economic operation.The banking system play a leading role in the financial system,and play a vital role in the development of the nation ecnomy.The global financial crisis which trigged by the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007 had led to major banks in giant bankrupt,and all of those led us see that the banking system is so fragile. At present China's financial system are progressing steadily,and the banks are deepening reform, how to prevent and reduce the vulnerability of the banking system, strengthen the banking system Toughness, so that better services for the national economy, is the next financial reforms need to focus and study.This article is based on this background and in-depth research. In the main content, the article make the theory and data set about the vulnerability of our banking system status on the basis of defining the vulnerability of our banking system,and make a brief analysis of the economic impact of the vulnerability of banking.The article measures the vulnerability of the banking system through the macro-economic method,and build a system of measuring the vulnerability of the banking in three aspacts(macro-variables, financial variables and system variables) which is suit China,this measuring system is built on the basis of the actual economic situation in China and refered to the foreign experience. 11 indicators were chosen for measurement and the article collects the data of the 11 indicators from 1990-2009 years,after processing and analysis the raw data,I use the model Logit and Progit to analyze and compare the results in order to find the main factor of affecting China's banking vulnerability,and I also take the Granger test.The empirical results tell that the macro-variables, financial variables and system variables have the affection to the banking vulnerability,but the financial variables and system variables ' affection is stronger than macro-variables'.The main innovations of this article is that it searchs the reasons of the vulnerability step by step from the transmission. This paper attempts to introduce the system of variables,and make the loan growth rate to represent the financing system and the fixed investment growth rate to represent the soft budget constraint.All of those makes some test results.