Commercial Bank Interest Rate Adjustment Study On Residents' Housing Mortgage Loan In China

Residential housing mortgage loans have become the most important part of bank consumer credit .Because of changing economic environment, the timing and direction of interest rate changes are uncertain; the risk of changes in interest rates facing by commercial banks'mortgage loans are cannot be ignored.This paper use empirical method to analysis the influence of interest rates changes to commercial banks'mortgage loans and the amount of real estate transactions, concluded that the 5‐year lending rate of commercial banks and the amount of residential housing mortgage loans and real estate transactions exist the VAR relationship.Further studies showed that this lag two real estate transactions Granger cause residential housing mortgage loans, not the opposite. This shows that mortgage market in China is a investment‐driven market.In the long run, with China to promote the process of marketization of interest rates, and state regulation of the housing market, strengthening of commercial bank interest rate risk management of mortgage loans, inhibition of housing speculation‐induced, prevention of systemic risk mortgage market are the only way to maintain the healthy development of the mortgage loan market in China.