International Market Access, Technical Trade Barrier Warning System Research

Along with the growing economical globalization and trade liberalization, the trade protective measures are tremendously changing, and the traditional customs duty and the quota barrier are becoming remote. But Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), which are hard to monitor and have lower transparency, are playing more important role. They already became the main form of non-customs barrier, and created the enormous hindrance to our country's export. Approximately, 60% of export enterprises have received foreign TBTs. Investigation by Department of Commerce demonstrated that such industries as spinning and weaving, light industry, chemical industry, food, livestock, mechanical and electrical industries, and so on are negatively impacted by foreign TBTs. Annually, about $45billion export is under the adverse influence, accounting for more than 25% of our annual total export, with direct and indirect economic loss of $11billion.As WTO limits the use of tariff barrier, countries are using more and more TBTs as a new way of trade protection. They do research, update their technical laws and regulations as well as checking procedures to establish TBTs. China is becoming a great exporter in the world, and thus unfamiliar with TBT. There is an urgent need for research on TBT-related theory and practice. Therefore, in view of the foreign TBTs, the research about the early warning target system of our exports and about the TBT early monitoring warning system becomes critical. This is the main study of my dissertation.My dissertation has three sections: Theory, practice, and suggestion. In the theory section, question of what the early warning system is is answered. What is the early warning mechanism? At present, six models of early warning systems are commonly used. They are the analytic hierarchy process, the artificial neural networks, ARCH and ARMA models, the distinction analysis model, MR model based on the probability pattern recognition, and the difference correlation analysis model.In the practice part, first, we use the AHP method --the analytic hierarchy process to analyze the main reason why developed countries establish TBT against China and to exploit the establishment of the TBT early warning system targeted at import countries of China exports, based on industry level. Take monitored national economical reason as A1, technical standard reason as A2; take A1 & A2 as the description and the appraisal national basic criterion level A. Under these two basic criteria, B level is set up to weigh the above two aspects; level B is then further changed into sub-level C corresponding appraisals (as Chart 3 shows). Therefore, we regard the national synthesis risk index as the appraisal goal Z, and establish the following function: Z=f (A1, A2). By this means, the design initially sets up a TBT early warning target data real-time monitor system, realizes automatically the goal page data capturing, and establishes independently a series of effective rules for data analysis.Second, research focuses on methods of the dynamic appraisal of target data collected. Monitor the target countries separately & respectively; appraise the data collected from these countries, compute their weighted average, and then choose an appropriate plan from the comparison of these averages. Choose another key indicator, appraise the data in another way, adjust the weights, and obtain another appropriate plan according to the similar computation and comparison. Over and over again, analyze and compare these plans, select the one with highest marks. The corresponding country monitored is considered the most serious threat to China export; and thus the early warning is sent out. Finally, an example is presented to analyze the model.In the last section, suggestions are given on the basis of the above mentioned model designing and example analysis, in which my research is different from suggestions in other warning related literature. Those suggestions are based upon the fact that TBT early warning work is insufficiently carried on in various domestic areas. My research is comparatively more comprehensive and more scientific.