Based On Bank Credit Risk Management, Corporate Financial Crisis Early-warning Model

Banking is an industry with high risks. The management of credit risk is crucial to the development of commercial banks. The purpose of this paper is to apply financial crisis models to predict the financial condition of the loaner. Though testing and comparing each model, we will analyze the strength ness and weakness of each model.The most serious financial crisis is financial bankruptcy. Many researches on financial crisis start from the enterprise bankruptcy. Because the interest of commercial banks is different from the outside investors and inside governor, commercial banks think a lot of the possibility of payoff and the liquidation ability. The third chapter selects 14 financial indexes that reflect the capability to repay, to make profit, to manage property and the liquidity. The paper chooses 34 ST companies as the samples of financial distress companies. For overcoming some deviation, the paper chooses 34 healthy listed companies which have the same industry, close property scale with the 34 ST companies. Though adopting data to demonstrate effect of single variable analysis Model, Multi-variable Analysis Model and logistic regression mode we reach the conclusion that single variable analysis Model is more straight and easily understood. Compared with MDA and Logistic model, the Logistic model has better result, more overall correct rate and less typeâ… mistake. In addition, the Logistic model doesn't require strict premises, so the Logistic model is superior to MDA model.