To Study The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy Implementation

Having been successfully implemented by the Chinese government from 1998, the active fiscal policy began to be focus of public attention. The positive and negative effects of active fiscal policy also become the hotspot of economic research. To study thoroughly and roundly, we use qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to study the economic increasing effects of Chinese fiscal policy since 1978. This paper consists of seven chapters, the main contents of which are introduced as bellow.Chapter I is introduction. This chapter deals with the background of choosing the topic and the significance of research, the related studies in China and abroad, research methods and the main innovation and limitation. In this chapter, we introduce the whole paper briefly.Chapter II is the summaries of fiscal policy. This chapter covers the definition of fiscal policy, its classification and targets, and the tools we often use for realizing the fiscal targets.Chapter III is the increasing effects. At first, we study the correlation between GDP and some important indicators, from which we can see that the fiscal policy in recent years has sped up economic growth greatly. Second, we use experimental analysis to analyze the two main tools of fiscal policy—tax and government expenditures in detail from the whole and structure, and show that (1) The economy is still the basis of tax, tax comes from economy, but there are some other factors affecting revenue growth; the current tax structure is not reasonable, we should change it as soon as possible; (2)From the Impulse graphs of GDP and government expenditures, we can see the government expenditures have positive effects on economic growth , especially the expenditures on economic construction, social,cultural and educational development, national defense and other expenditure.Chapter IV is about the crowding-out effects of fiscal policy. First we discuss the meaning and types of crowding-out effect. And then we use econometric models to study these problems as follows: the fiscal deficit has increased the rate or not? The effects that government spending and taxes have on private consumption and investment. The experimental results show that our fiscal policy has no crowding-out effects.Chapter V talks about the effective time lag of fiscal policy. The excellent economic policy is not only the policy combination, but also the time we put into practice. So the government should take the time lag of policies into consideration when they use them to resolve economic problems. This paper adopts impulse response function and cross correlation coefficient to study this problem, and the conclusions show that: the time lag of fiscal revenue is one season, and that of, government expenditure is three seasons.ChapterVI analyzes asymmetric effects of fiscal policy. In this chapter, we first discuss the potential reasons of asymmetric effects, and then we use variance decomposition to measure it, and find that the fiscal variable shocks have faint asymmetry.Chapter VII is the summery that consists of all the conclusions we got by experimental analysis.