Growth Of Smes In China Crisis Early Warning

The medium-sized and small enterprises is being played more and more important role in our country national economy, in this vigorous group, some advance by leaps and bounds , some be at a standstill; Highly growth company are lucky to grow up, but the low have common reasons failing, the SMEs grows obviously slowly appear growth crisis.Our studying postpone the research of the growth of medium-sized and small enterprises researching group of our Business School, after going deep into crisis theory and crisis early warning research method, probing into the cause of medium-sized and small enterprises growth crisis, building the medium-sized and small enterprises growth crisis early warning index system, making every effort to structure solid reliable medium-sized and small enterprises growth crisis early warning model.Studying the comparison research of the linearity model and nonlinearity model deperately, synthesizing the merit of neural networks and the Logistic return model, we have built neural networks Logistic return-based two stage early warning model ,the results classified by being advanced for 1 year to the sample to 3 years indicate two stage model of neural networks Logistic has the optimum forecast ability, whose accurate rate is better than any unitary model ,can make a good prediction of near future and far future." Core Business Factor " ", the Large Stock Holder Factor " and "Marketing Factor" has contained the model most information, has been important reason leading to crisis.the SMEs can control the crisis by compute the Confidence Interval of growth crisis.