Study Of The Influencing Factors Of The Stock Bubble

The solidly developing of financial market is the prerequisite that our country economy continues developing rapidly. Experiences have indicated that high share price bubble has the gigantic damage effect to the financial market stability. Therefore, the research to share price bubble is to be hot spot which keeping over the past 10 years at home and abroad. Study share price bubble influencing factor has very strong theorical and practical significance.This paper based on 40 listed companies in the retail industry, mechanical industry and the utilities industry, which come from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, between 2003 to 2006. From the nature of the bubble started, we use the Residual Income Model calculates each single listed company's bubble level of our sample book , study share price bubble from the perspective of company's share centralization degree and scale characteristic, try to analysis the effections of company's share centralization degree , the share-splitting , the circulating scale to share price bubble; And the relations among company's share price bubble , share centralization degree , the circulating scale and the second year's share income. Finally, comprehensive the research findings and the reality of our country we make the policy recommendations and investment guides.Through empirical analysis, We have the following conclusions: (1) There exists the obvious share price bubble in our country's stock market, the bubble level of sample companies decrease gradually during 2003-2005, but from the year 2005 to 2006 the bubble is trend to rise up. (2)There are Positive correlation between the shares of bubble level and the competitiveness of industries: In fully competitive industries, the average bubble of company is minimum for 19.95 percent; followed by the complete monopoly industries, the average is the highest level of the bubble monopoly competitive industries, the average is 58.73% in 4 years; The difference of intercompany bubble is related to the competitiveness of the industry , and monopoly characteristics of the industry has more Positive impact of stock bubble than perfect competition to the industry. (3) There is a notable positive correlation between price bubble and company's share centralization degree, the market circulating scale has notable negative relevance with price bubble. And the market circulating scale is the Geranger cause of company's stock structure centralization degree, it explained that our country's stock markets existing universal price-controlling phenomenons. (4) There are significant positive correlation between the price bubble and circulating ratio, as well as Fuchenglu, it indicated that share-splitting is an important reason why there is price bubble in our stock markets. (5) The earning ratio of the second year is notable related to company's share price bubble level , this explains that the stock price trend is comparatively obvious in our country stock market, the company's share price bubble does not return to its intrinsic value, the existence of the stock bubble is not because of the intrinsic value of the company overestimated, the result of more shares because of the manipulation and speculation; And there was a significant positive correlation between the earning ratio of the second year andcompany's share centralization degree, Fuchenglu as well as circulating ratio.