Trade In Services An Empirical Study Of China's Industrial Structure Upgrade

With the adjustment of the industrial structure worldwide as well as the global economy continues to focus on services sector,international trade in services is now considered to be a new engine of global economic development.From the 1970s, international trade in services has become a hot topic of economics research. Meanwhile,regarded as the root cause of economic development,the upgrading of industrial structure is showing increasingly closers ties with international trade and investment activities in the open economy nowadays.However,as a newly developing sector,does trade in services have real effect on the upgrading of industrial structure? What kind and to what extent does this effect expressed? And through what kinds of channels and mechanisms trade in services affects the upgrading of industrial structure?Based on above issues,this thesis begins with the general analysis of the theoretical mechanism through which trade in services has a positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.Then conducts the empirical research from two aspects:first,use data and facts to observe the existing status of international trade in services in China;Second,carries out the econometrics tests on how trade in services influences the upgrading of industrial structure through multivariate regression analysis,mediation test,cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.The empirical analysis shows that,the development of international trade in services has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure in China.Moreover,this impact is achieved through the accumulation of main factors endowment,including capital,human resource,technological progress and other mediated factors such as knowledge.The gradual change of factors endowment brought by these mediations will push forward the upgrading of industrial structure. And in the long-term,the upgrading of industrial structure will have a corresponding effect on trade in services either.Finally,we also put forward some recommendations based on the conclusions of this study,hoping can offer some references for the further development of trade in services.