College Loan Risk Early Warning Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

In recent years, higher education has developed rapidly in our country. but at he same time, colleges and universities sponsored large-scale debt and expanded rapidly, university loan risk is beginning to appear, the huge debt has become an important factor, which is constraining the development of colleges and universities, the theory discussion about university loan risk has become increasingly active. Research on forewarning is an important part of research on university loan risk. Domestic academic circles made some achievements in control of scale of university loans, design of forewarning indicators, forewarning methods and so on; however, there are many issues worthy of further study.This article first, starting with the existing forewarning methods of financial risk to analyze and compare the shortcomings of the existing financial risk forewarning methods and models, then introduce the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the idea of university loan risk based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is presented. Second, it describes the related forewarning concept of university loan risk as well as the related theories of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and then an adaptability analysis of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation applied to the university loan risk forewarning was made. Third, it establishes systems of forewarning indicators of financial risk in university under the guidance of the loan risk forewarning indicator system, and make the comprehensive universities which directly under the Ministry of Education as the basic samples, then screens the warning indicators through correlation test and use the method of expert consultation compared with analytic hierarchy process to assign the weight of screening indicators, and the fuzzy evaluation model is established on the basis of using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation principles. Finally, it takes two comprehensive universities directly under the Ministry of Education for example and carries out a comparative analysis, then puts forward a resolution of resolve the current colleges and universities loan risk. Though the above research, some conclusions can be drawn. First, imperfections exist in the resent research on university loan risk forewarning; it has higher research and space of development in terms of selected indicators or evaluation methods. Second, the forewarning system of university loan risk is designed from loan level, ability to pay and fund management. Third, the weighs of evaluation indicators are determined by the method compared expert consultation with analytic hierarchy process, which is better combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis. The method has an advantage of simple evaluation process and short evaluation time, which is able to listen to the experts' views deeply and improve the forecast accuracy. Fourth, the forewarning model of university loan risk is based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation principles, and empirical analysis is made according to the two comprehensive universities directly under the Ministry of Education, which shows that the warning method is scientific and effective.