International Hot Money Inflow Channels, Scale, And Regulatory Research

Since 2003, the appreciation of RMB is expected to be continuous, especially after July 21st, 2005, when the new mechanism of RMB exchange rate deciding became effective. Thus, it is predicted that a great lot of hot money has entered into our country, waiting for the appreciation of RMB as well as speculating in some markets to get some high profit, which might make some shock on the domestic markets. Then, the following questions should be paid attention to: Firstly, how come the hot money has entered? Secondly, where has the hot money been? Thirdly, how much does the hot money has? Forth, how can we pre-detect hot money? At last, whether is our monitoring system perfect? If not, how can we improve? The answers to these questions form the main content of this paper.Focused on the content mentioned above,this paper is divided into four parts. The first part is definition of the object of the study, including the definition, the main characteristics, the source of hot money, and the comparison with the related concepts, which is necessary to further study. The second part is about the possible methods of hot money entering into our country and domestic markets. The third part is about quantity estimation. On this part, we summarizes the existent three kinds of methods of quantity estimation on capital flight, then on which basis we contrive the relative methods of estimation on hot money by simple transformation. The last part focuses on the current monitoring system. In this part we have described the common content of monitoring system firstly, then we discuss some countries'monitoring practice, finally we scrutinize the current system in our country and put forth some problems and possible improvement means.