Equilibrium In The Pricing Of Stock Market Value And Impact Factor Analysis

All along, the stock valuation method is a problem for the financial sector. The traditional capital asset pricing model, the absolute value method, the relative valuation method, in spite of the more perfect in theory, but in practice were often difficult to explain the large swings of the stocks. Especially since 2008, the volatility of China and global equity markets could not be explain by the traditional method of stock valuation.The traditional methods of stock valuation analysis focus on the balance that is always random fluctuations and all times reflect the intrinsic value of stocks. In a balanced analysis, the absolute value of the traditional method focus on the returns on assets discounted by the discount model of stock to give a balanced range of pricing, will be large swings in the stock valuation of the risk premium attributed to the investment of psychological factors on preferences ;the relative Contingent valuation method focus on company earnings similar to the lack of theoretical basis for the establishment of growth and earnings between the two quantitative models, stock price and earnings to determine the influence of subjective expectations, so that by subjective expected a greater impact. Both balanced analysis of the valuation method for pricing the stock of external factors affecting the lack of assessment, not the internal value of the stock valuation and external shocks, balanced and non-equilibrium to distinguish between factors to consider.Stock valuation is different from the traditional equilibrium analysis, this article in order to return to the law of average as a breakthrough point, the introduction of non-equilibrium analysis to the stock valuation analysis. Law of mean reversion based on the relevant studies suggest that the volatility of stock prices is a regular, long-term in a non-equilibrium state of the stock often deviate from the intrinsic value of the stock. In this paper, the establishment of the resulting net assets, balance of net return on assets, return on assets net impact factor, balanced earnings ratio, earnings impact factor of five-factor model, and model of balanced and non-equilibrium factors are qualitative and quantitative analysis. Integration of traditional law, the absolute value of the discount model of equity returns and relative earnings valuation model law to determine the equilibrium rate of return on assets and the balance of the net earnings; through the money supply, Ml, M2 analysis of historical data of the Sino-US mobility the impact of non-equilibrium, through macro-economic, industry analysis of the among the assets of reflexive cycle of assets into the impact of non-balanced by the real estate and Suning Appliance Vanke case reflexive analysis of the assets arising from the impact of changes in net assets. Through the above analysis, this article is not only evidence of a balanced stock valuation factors and quantify the existence of value, but also innovative non-equilibrium factor is the stock valuation of the most important factor, and the impact on the mobility factor, the cyclical impact of factor, changes in net assets of the three factors of non-equilibrium theoretical analysis and empirical research, balanced and non-balanced combination of factors of the stock market pricing model to better explain the fluctuations in the stock valuation reasons.