Research Stage Investment Decisions Of Corporate R & D Projects

Today with the economic environment development and changes rapidly, a large number of high-risk and high-yield projects are emerging, and have become the most active factors in the products market and capital market. The typical one is R & D investment project, whose investment objectives are "seed technologies". These "seed technologies" are need to cultivate, which are still in the initial design phase, and the products are not mature enough yet to test the market experience. Whether they can be translated into practical productive has still a lot Uncertainties. The enterprise resource allocation and evaluation of investment opportunities determine the enterprise value and competitiveness. Therefore, in the great uncertainty environment, How investors should be done to carry out a comparative Sensible analysis in the face of such investment projects which is "risk-benefit with ", and reduce the blind and individuals with emotional decision-making have become the R & D investments key to success.This paper bases on real options thinking, and applies of decision tree analysis to make the concept of structure model to R & D investment decision-making process and evaluate the projects. At the same time, integrated real options thinking and cash flow analysis to set up the the mathematical model and combined with operator to get evaluated analysis.First of all, by analyzing the differences of technical knowledge of the private properties at the different stages,the article divide commercialization stage into the operational phase of the patent and commercialization stage. A tri-stage investment-analyzing frame is constructed to realize an organic combo of the R&D, commercial startup and scale expansion during the uncertain investments and an interacting investment chain. The decision-making executive probability applied to the research frame can reflect both the serial and the parallel interdependencies of the real options.This article is no longer used the time's dynamic random to describe the value of the project. The key factors emergence of the decision-making trigger point is the technology itself, as well as investment intensity in R & D, The trigger time of decision-making is handled as random variables.After computing the expectation on the distribution function, the approximate solution can be got by employing numeric techniques to the target function that involves European option pricing formula.