Inference And Analysis Of The Contemporary Financial Crisis Early-warning Indicators

People still remember vividly about the lingering fear of the Shocks time the Southeast Asia economic crisis,when recently subprime lending crisis Escalating unceasingly,the global stock market fell suddenly,the inflation footbinding, the US's five big financial organs went bankrupt or strypped-down,the industrial profit dropped ,all sorts of symptom illustrate a global financial crisis is processing. This article take this as a source,according to the Fictitious economic and the financial crisis research of the domestic and foreign experts ,discover excessive deviation between the Fictitious economic and the entity economic become new tendency of the contemporary economy development,is the most typical characteristic of financial crisis in the early time. This article is divided three parts to elaborate this viewpoint: Firstly, this article summarized described different instance of financial crisis under the different historical economic condition,thus conclude the special and the general character of differect financial crisis. Discovered from the entire crisis history,all contains some kind of the Fictitious economic's Unstable state characteristic. Secondly,use for reference of diffusion structure physics model, analyzes the Fictitious economic's Unstable state characteristic. In detail , From four aspects :credit, the capitalization method, the behavior disassimilation and positive feedback. Discuss the foundation and reason of the Fictitious economic's Unstable state characteristic, expound the contemporary new characteristic.Finally, explained financial crisis formation mechanism through the chaos model , and comment on the Chinese present situation.