Hunan Province Macro Tax Burden And Economic Development In Empirical Analysis

How to achieve national progress and productivity growth is the important issue of modern economics. Economists have made a great number of researches on factors that promote economic growth. In addition to relying on the "invisible hand" of market force to carry out the internal mechanism, the external macroeconomic policies to promote economic growth are the important means. In these macro-economic policies, tax policy bears the brunt, and the tax rate is the core issue of the tax system. Therefore, the research on macro tax burden is significant.Firstly, based on the general theory of tax burden, this paper uses comprehensive analysis. On one hand, this paper compares Hunan province with other provinces of nation and central region; on the other hand, from the region, industry, tax types aspects, this paper in-depth comparative analyzes the Hunan's tax structure.Then, based on the analysis of macro-economic effects, we set up the tax revenue growth model under the influence of the various elements and the co-integrate analysis model of tax burden and economic growth. The first model full account of the factors affecting revenue. This model uses Ridge Regression, and we program to calculate ridge parameter k of Variance Inflation Factor with MATLAB. This model will analyze the impact of economic factors on the tax revenue to simulate the real economy. The second model analyzes the long-time equilibrium relationship and short-term fluctuations of tax revenue and economic growth, and analyzes the affect relation of tax revenue and economic growth in the all of the time lag with the Granger Causality Test.Finally, based on the research conclusion, this paper puts forward five aspects of policy recommendations to promote the tax burden and economic growth coordinated development in Hunan:optimizing the industrial structure, regulating non-taxable income, strengthening tax source supervising and controlling, reasonable distribution plan of tax, keeping sustainable development of real estate industry.