Research Real Estate Prices And Changes In The Population Factors

Real estate and housing price play an important role in China's economic expansion,in terms of the ratio of real estate loan to total loan and the ratio of housing value to GDP.However, the ever-rising housing price induces the pressure of regulation. How to avoid the risk of a sharp decline of the housing price? It depends on the realization of the market theory which shapes the housing price. The thesis then focuses on the demographic factors.Based on the past research, the thesis forms a vector autoregression model involving the loan,income and demographic factors, in order to compare the price mechanism among China, US and Japan. It is shown that demographic factors exert more consistent effect on the housing price but with much longer lag, compared to other factors. China's housing price, is more related to the speculation force, as it over-reacts to the urbanization rate and under-reacts to the age-structure. In addition, it is found that there is no simple counter reaction of housing price on the demographic factors.The turning point of labor force population ratio will appear in 2010, and the under-reaction of housing price on this factor will face the risk of modification. At the same time, the urbanization process is slowing as the age structure of urban population is deteriorate and the wage for rural worker is rising, which means the over-reaction of housing price on this factor will face the modification as well. Then three policy suggestions is list as follows:In the short term, counter attack the speculation force. In the medium term, make full use of the demographic dividend to stimulate the railway construction, which helps to realize the expectation of urbanization. In the long term, make condition for the rural land rotation,and make progress in the social security for rural people, whose demand for urban construction are expected to be the new foundation for future housing price.