| Since 1998, personal housing mortgage business developed rapidly in China. As time passing by and economic policies changing, in-advance repayment also increases. The attitude of commercial banks towards in-advance repayment changed from acquiescence to restriction and control. But the research and restriction on in-advance repayment are still limited. Therefore the risk of in-advanced repayment became a important topic of research in personal housing mortgage area. Under such a situation, this article will start with a commercial bank, doing research on factors which influenced in-advance repayment, establishing models to detect those risks, noting commercial banks about the importance of detecting such risks, and reinforcing research on this type of risks. Meanwhile, the author hopes to provide both practical and theoretical support for control and diminish in-advance repayment risk.The basics of this article are established on current research of domestic housing mortgage and advanced westerner thoughts, which aim to get a in-depth understanding of factors influencing personal housing mortgage, to build up models about various factors and behavior, thereby to establish a strategy for commercial banks to diminish in-advance repayment risks.This article is divided into five chapters.Chapter one:summary about research background, goals and significance. Secondly, literature review and brief introduction about theoretical methods and research methods. Finally, research thoughts and framework.Chapter two:theoretical introduction about personal housing mortgage and the risk of in- advance repayment. Firstly definition of personal mortgage, in-advance repayment and related topics. Secondly discuss the influence about the repayment, finally about the factors affecting repayments.Chapter three:introducing the management on repayment risk in USA, Deutschland and HK. Combined with the domestic current management situation, the author gave out the suggested problems on domestic repayment risk management.The chapter four and five are essential,which applied the repayment risk into practical testing and result practice. The chapter four firstly introduced the results of questionnaire survey and discussed the sample background. After sampling and quantitative research, it described the data. Meanwhile,15 variables which influenced the repayment were chosen, in giving prevalent westerner elements analysis and discriminate function analysis methods, the author aimed to establish discriminate function and explain contribution of those factors in the discriminate function, so the conclusion of the discriminate research can be given.Chapter five:based on the previous conclusion of the discriminate function analysis, the author discussed today China's problems on repayment risk management. Providing cure to those risks, products innovation and service innovation.The significance of this article is mainly about:providing empirical testing, evidence to scholars'opinions and paving the way to further understanding of repayment risk while this topic is still less concerned domestically but this business was strongly grown, providing sufficient data from commercial banks. Meanwhile, the strategy suggested can be helpful to commercial banks. The potential weakness of this article can be from external influence such as:the influence from government policy, because of the time length of mortgage, it was strongly affected by government policy and its unpredictability. Therefore practice and adjustment are critical to the model established and conclusion given in this article. |
