Grey Prediction And Neural Networks In Telecom Customer Churn Prediction

Churn analysis, as an important subject of business administration, is mainly used to do data mining,establish the forecasting model, analyze which kind of customer take on the biggest attrition rate and finally, forecast the status of customer attrition.The grey system is a system of the incomplete and indeterminate information and the grey problem is the problem of the incomplete information in construction, character. But the neural network has many advantages, for example, the parallel calculation, the distributed information memory, the admitting-error ability, the self-adapt learning function, etc. So the neural network shows the very superior position in handling complicated artificial problem. From studying the grey system and the neural network, we have discovered that they can estimate the function. Each of the two kinds of methods has its own strong point. If we put two kinds of methods together, we can establish the grey neural network model.The grey neural network model is a model that nearly integrates the grey system method with the neural networks method by a valid path in order to solve the complicated indeterminate problems. When we solve the grey problem, the calculating quantity of this model is less than that of the neural network and under the few samples condition it still can attain the higher precision. And compared with the neural network method, the grey neural network model has the higher precision and can control the error.