China's Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Early Warning, In The Perspective Of Non-financial Indicators

Affected by the global financial crisis, the companies have to face much more financial risks. Without the timely action, the companies especially the listed companies may immerse in financial crisis even go bankrupt and close down. In our country, the number of the companies presented with the circumstance that they are occupied in"ST"plate and even forced to quit listing because of financial crisis is growing more and more. The company itself, the inventors and creditors are all realizing that a financial warning system with sensitive reaction and a useful financial warning model need to be established urgently.Based on the theory of financial warning and compared with the advanced management thought, this paper has established a financial warning system including four parts. Only when they properly combined together, the warning system could predict and prevent the financial crisis.Then, the empirical analysis of financial warning model is given. Previous study on financial warning model is mainly based on financial factors.While researches going on, people find out that the model that contains non-financial factors has better prediction result than the model only contains financial factors.On the basis of previous research,this paper chooses 47 financial distress companies(which have been special treated from 2006 to 2007)and 47 financial healthy companies as compared. The indexes could divide into 2 groups: the financial factors and the non-financial factors. Analyzed in statistical inspection, the paper remains the most important factors in the research. The result shows that financial factors have significant effect on financial warning;non-financial factors also have effect on the financial prediction; the comprehensive model performed best when predicting the financial crisis. At last, the correctness and validity of the mode is verified.