| According to the aging standard of ESCO(Education Scientific and Cultual Organization), China has entered the aging society since 2001, and both the popution and the proportion of the aging people will be accelerated growing in the next 30 years. Due to the one-child policy and low birth rate in China, the demands for the senior housing and the aging services are sharply increasing. There is a big gap between the market supply and the demand.On one hand, as the development of the aging society in China, it gradually formed a large senior living industry market with great potential. According to the estimation of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the business opportunity in the aging industry in China is approximately 4 thousand billion yuan so far, and it will reach 13 thousand billion yuan by the year of 2030.On the other hand, along with the global economic recession and the government’s macro regulation and control, the golden times of real estate industry in China has come to an end after 20 years prosperous development, and it has entered a depth adjustment stage inevitably. Due to the fierce competition in the market, there are rare real estate companies that still focusing on housing developing. More and more companies who master adequent capital and financing resources choose the senior living industry to seek diversification and professionalization.Since the senior living industry has a great relationship with finance and real estate development, more than 80 famous real estate companies such as Vanke, Poly Real Estate, Sino-Ocean Land, Longfor, China Resources Land, Fosun Propery, and etc have entered the industry and senior housing becomes the best choice for the transformations of real estate companies.As the investor and the director unit of Aging Project in China, CITIC Guoan involved in senior living industry a long time ago, and intended to implant the senior care function into the projects under development all over the whole country. However, when carring out the real projects, challenges are faced such as no existing experiences, no mature profit models and no normaltive standards.In this article, through the analysis and comparison of the typical senior housing mode, visit many large senior housing facilities in U.S, through the interviews with the executives of senior housing companies and combine the current situation of China’s national conditions and CITIC Guoan, summarized as, aging service industry profitability is relatively stable, but also as the service level, interest rates, inflation and growth, the average time of a senior living facility from the opening to the balance of payments industry is 3 to 8 years. The early stage of the senior housing’s building, land cost is very large, if just rely on the operating income, it will make the investment recovery period is quite long. Senior housing should focusing on the scale, study from the CCRC model in U.S, resource intensive, through the quality service to guarantee the high occupancy rate, resulting in a steady cash flow. Secondly should use REITs, bonds and other assets securitization tools to enhance the liquidity of the assets and cash ability.By selling optimal senior residential, drained quickly, enjoy senior housing development profits, Hold and rent the senior living facilities can enjoy senior housing rental yield long-term assets value; Long-term operation CCRCs community can dominate a lot of long-term stable and continuous appreciation of cash flow, but also can enjoy the benefits of asset appreciation, you can effectively combat and reverse the economic cycle. |
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