| The papers includes the following four sections:The first section: Because the reform of Renminbi exchage rate regime is under the background of economic globalization , the focal part of this section is to analyze the effect of economic globaliazation to world exchange rate regime.Economic globalization gives rise to the inescapable problems to world economic development as follows :1.the government macro-regulation difficulty;2.financial globalization brings fairly difficulty to stability of global exchage rate;3.large scale capital flow brings the trouble to country's exchange rate management.The second section:Analyse the present status and trait of the renminbi exchange rate regime.The basis of exchage rate regime is the exchage rate price determination.The papers chooses the PPP theory as the basis for analysing Renminbi exchange rate determination.Although the fluctuation of Renminbi nominal exchange rate was not in accordance with the Purchasing power parity in the short term,yet the nominal exchange rate shows no disparity with the PPP in the long term.After analysing the real effective exchange rate of Renminbi,the papers draws a conclusion that the depreciation or appreciation of real effective exchange rate rather than nominal exchange rate is the crucial factor for country's export.Successively,the papers analyses the factors which affect the trend of Renminbi exchange rate,such as:1.the supply and demand of foreign exchange;2.the foreign exchange reservation and foreign debt composition;3.national economic development strategy.4.exchange rate management mechanism;5.the central bank monetary policy;6.the influence of foreign capital inflow;7.the impact of international economic environment;8.the effect of anticipating.The papers illustrates that the essentials of Renminbi exchange rate regime is the fixed rate regime pegged to dollars.Subsequently ,the papers analyse the flaw of Renminbi exchange rate regime under enforcement from 3 aspects:1.from the implementing cost angle;2.from angle of exchange rate mechanism which is the manifestation of Renminbi exchange rate regime under enforcement.3.from the natural flaw of Renminbi exchange rate regime in operation.The Third section:Analyse the policy goal and choice range of Renminbi exchange rate regime reform.The goals of regime reform are as follows:1.enhance the trade balance;2.transfer behavior of demand and supply of foreign exchange from planned behavior to marketing behavior;3.promote the industrial structure reform;4.reform the regime pegged to dollars;5. proper sequencing of capital account liberalization is indispensable;6.promote the Renminbi exchange rate to more flexibility and convertibility;7.keep up the stability of Renminbi exchange rate.8.establish the status international money of Renminbi.The government must take following factors into consideration when they devise the Renminbi exchange rate regime:1.accelerating the domestic economic regime reform;2.enhancing domestic industrial structure adjustment;3.meeting the requirements of WTO;4.grasping the significant part of monetary policy.5.enhancing the asia regional monetary cooperation;6.commanding international exchange rate operation regularity;7.recognizing the probability of being attacked by international speculators.The papers briefly analyse the character of eight kinds of exchange rate regime which are in operation.The fouth section:Analyse the reform direction of Renminbi exchange rate regimeThe papers forwards the standpoint establishing the Renminbi exchange rate target zone regime in the near future. Upon the basis of theory of exchange rate target zone,the papers analyses the component factors which apply to the Renminbi exchange rate target zone regime:1.defining the fundamental equlibrium exchange rate(FEER) which is 1$=7.5RMB;2.defining the top and bottom border of Renminbi exchange rate target zone.the fluctuation of exchange rate is within the limit of 1$=6-9RMB;3.analysing the monetary policy which central bank could empl... |
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