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Chinese Stock Market Systematic Risk Analysis

Posted on:2003-08-17Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y H BuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360062490877Subject:Political economy
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
This thesis take the Systematical Risk of Chinese Stock Market and where it coming from as the main argument. By using Finance, Systematic Economics, Game Theory and Information Economics and others, it analyzes deeply the high rate and its causes of the Systematical Risk of Chinese Stock Market through the ways of demonstration and criterion.The standpoint of Western countries researching the question of systematical risk is from the beginning of micro-economical corporation and industrials, and at the invest-mental point. This thesis try to use for reference of the contemporary Western's financial tools and ways to analyze the actuality of Chinese Stock Market and give it a reasonable orientation. Chinese Stock Market is a government pulling market, "all the chance coming from policy", so most of the risks are caused by the policy. Therefore, the thesis will emphasize on analysis the drawback of the action of government and the institutions behind of the Stock Market. Owing to the uncertainty of financial assets, the instability of financial systems, and the random walk characteristic of the prices of securities, the risk is a fundamental characteristic of financial system. So the systematical risk of stock market is unavoidable. But through the analysis and contrasting the index of transferal rate and P/E rate between Chinese Market and others, which demonstrated that the speculative factor in our market is strong; and the data provided by instrumental analysis of our market prove that our systematical risk is higher than the ordinary level.When we analyze the Chinese Stock Market by making the use of modern financial model and calculation tools, we find that the data of our market can't meet those models' needs which result in the conclusions are invalid. Then it further demonstrated that Chinese Stock Market is a "governmental market". It is unstable and immature, which results directly in the high market risk.During analyzing the whole system, this thesis takes apart some deep level reasons like the multiple-functions of market, the insufficiency of market system, the shortage of market credit system and the defect of market's pricing system, etc. At the same time, it also pointed out the harm ness of regroup of the listing corporations. Concerning above shortcomings of our market, this thesis developed some advice and countermeasures or points, including building an credit market not assured by government, insisting the plan of reducing holding state shares, consummating the market exit mechanism, etc. At last, this thesis also analyze China entry into WTO make the effect on Chinese Stock Market, and it includes the diffusion effects from international financial risks, the effect on domestic intermediary, and the new questions brought by the derivative financial tools and the developed financial techniques, and then it developed the point of reasonable step rhythm of opening up. At the development speed aspect, because of the poor economy basis, we should keep to the market rules, and not speed up beyond the ordinary level, so we need absorb the thoughts of historic natural evolution; at the opening speed aspect, we should make good use of the function of government other than cultivating the perfect market by policy, but build comparatively integrate system and laws at a higher speed, and make a good environment to keep away and avoid international or domestic market risks and reduce the systematical risks.
Keywords/Search Tags:Systematic
PDF Full Text Request
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