| Since the adoption of the policy of reform and opening up to the outside world in China, the high growth has been mainly obtained by means of high inputs. Transportation industry is not an exception. Compared with that of developed countries, the growth pattern in economic development in our country is one of extensive pattern characterized by high input, high consumption, low output, and low quality. With ever-insufficient supply of resources and a worsened environment in respect to pollution, it becomes obvious that such an extensive pattern of economic growth, built up by solely enlarging the size of construction and increasing the input of production factor, neglecting the progress in science and technology, the practice of modernized management and the quality of economic performance can no longer be maintained.The intensive growth pattern is clearly reflected in the growth of productivity. Judgment (especially quantitative valuing) and measurement of productivity is of considerable significance in spite of the difficulty and complexity involved. In other countries, the earliest study dates back to the 1920's The results of the study have found a wide range of applications from theory to practice, from study methodology to estimating mathematical model, and to the final adoption by the World Bank. TFP has been regarded as stratagem index of a sustainable development in a country (or area) and as the criterion for a quantitative evaluation of the quality of economic performance.In recent years, a great deal of efforts and resources has been expended in developing measures of productivity for carriers in different modes of transportation. Measures of productivity performance, efficiency and effectiveness are now available for railways, airlines, trucking, and waterway.On the basis of a panel data from 4 modes of transportation for the period 1985-2000,this study set out to evaluate productivity performance of the industry of transportation with two extended forms of the standard Malmquist data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, which can deal with degrees of freedom limitations. This method has the advantage that it does not require theassumption of cost minimizing behavior. It also has the advantage that it permits the decomposition of TFP growth into efficiency improvement, scale effects and technical progress. Considerable productivity growth was found, but it was mainly accomplished through technical progress rather than efficiency improvement. The determinants and productivity growth are analyzed by using regression techniques for limited dependent variable models with random effects. The Regression analyses indicate that productivity growth of different modes of transportation is impacted by different factors.The plan of the paper is as follows.In section 1, we discuss the basic theory of TFP. we briefly retrospect studies of TFP in literature and methodologies.In Section 2, we introduce the model for the measurement of TFP in transportation industry .we present the background of our study and describe the techniques of the extended forms of the standard Malmquist- data envelopment analysis (DEA) method, which we have named the Three-year-window-DEA (TYW-DEA) and the Full Cumulative-DEA (FC-DEA) methods.In Section 3, we analyze the changes of TFP in transportation industry. Data of inputs and outputs is dealt with and presented in this section The results of the changes of productivity are achieved.In Section 4, we analyze the factors impacting the productivity growth. We employ Probit and Logit Model to acquire the main factors influencing TFP growth .In the end, the conclusion is provided.In Section 5, we sums up the methodologies and conclusion. Then it gives some advices about raising the TFP.The dissertation's main contribution lies in using Malmquist -DEA method and regression techniques for limited dependent variable models with random effects. I finished the large part of statistical analysis calculation of the dissertation by using statistical software SPSS a... |
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