Fluctuations In The Economic Cycle Monitoring And Early Warning Systems

As we all know, economy does not develop steadily and directly. In fact, it rises in cycle, that is, with prosperity and slack by turns. When economy fluctuates greatly or slacks badly, crisis appears and it brings losses even disasters to the economy. Economic periodic fluctuation monitor and early warning means that the theories and methods on economic monitor, economic evaluation, economic forecasting and policy selection are studied on the basis of economic periodic fluctuation-one special economic phenomenon.First of all, the relation between economic development and economic fluctuation is discussed. The meaning of economic cycle is explained. Then the theories on causes of economic cycle are introduced. Based on these, the tracks, characters and causes of economic periodic fluctuation in our country are emphasized. The characters and reasons of district economic periodic fluctuation are put forward.In the second chapter, the method of determining the basic cycle is introduced. Economic periodic fluctuation monitor and early warning index system is built. The standard of classifying the beforehand index, consistent index and delay index is explained. In addition, the method of calculating the diffusion index, the function of the diffusion index and the relation between the diffusion index and gross fluctuation are presented. Then the method of calculating composite index is given.The third chapter is one of the most innovative parts of this thesis. Grey relational analysis of grey system theory is introduced, and the theory is applied to index time difference analysis. Meanwhile, grey wave forecasting of grey system theory is explained, and the method is applied to economic cycle index forecasting.In chapter 4, the designing method of early warning signal system is introduced. And the early warning limits of all the indexes are made.The designing thought of economic periodic fluctuation monitor and early warning software system is presented. The functions of all the sub-systems are explained in details. Those are discussed in the fifth chapter.Finally, economic periodic fluctuation monitor and early warning system is applied to macro economy of our country in 1998-2001. The positive study is conducted. The main innovations are listed below.(1) Grey relational analysis is introduced to the study of economic fluctuation monitor and early warning. A scientific and reasonable economic fluctuation monitor and early warning index system is gained.(2) Grey wave forecasting of grey system theory is applied to economic cycle index forecasting. The forecasting result is highly closed to the reality.(3) Economic periodic fluctuation early warning signal system is built. On the basis of it, the early warning limits of all the indexes are determined. Economic periodic fluctuation monitor and early warning software system is developed. At the same time, the functions, the workflow, the designing2thought and the equipment configuration of the system are explained in details.(4) Economic periodic fluctuation monitor and early warning system is applied to macro economy of our country in 1998-2001. The positive study is conducted. On the one hand, the economic fluctuation is monitored by the prosperity index system. On the other hand, the economic situation is forecasted by the early warning signal system. The valuable results are got.