OPEC Impact On International Oil Markets And China's Countermeasures

OPEC is an international Cartel organization, which production accounts about 40%-60% world crude oil supply, and which reserve is about 75% of the world total reserves. As a union of oil producing countries, due to its large quota in world crude oil supply and reserves, it has played an important role in influencing the world crude oil price .At the moment, OPEC is trying to adjust its own energy polices to change its members crude oil quote, and by means of adjusting its crude oil production,it controls or influences the world crude oil price to maintain its member's benefit and to realize its oil resource profit maximum.The article has described the OPEC forming and 40years developing history, during this period, OPEC has experienced three terms, that is, the primary foundation term, quick advancement term and difficult striving term. In each term OPEC had taken an active part in affecting the world crude oil price.Then the article has analyzed the influencing factors on world oil market. The main factors to affect oil supply includes: OPEC's producing capacity and its production quota policy, oil stock, world oil production cost, politics and military factors, etc; while the factors to influence oil demand is the world economic growth rate, the substitution energy, season changes, the speculation in the future stock market, etc. Meanwhile the article has analyzed the price-decision model with the OPEC in the world oil market by the way of economic theory, disclosed respectively the different reason for the world oil price's slump in 1998 and the price's sudden and sharp rise in 1999, moreover it has made an detailed analysis and anticipation with the world oil price moving tendency in 2002.Finally the article has analyzed the economic result of the world oil price changing and influence to Chinese economy. It has analyzed the influence to world economy in higher oil price and lower price cases, which shows the world oil price's changing has made a higher crude oil purchasing cost in China, brought about the increase for the concerning industry's running cost and made our country's energy safety guarantee more and more prominent. As a result, the article has put forward to the advise to establish crude oil reserve system, attend the crude oil future stock to reduce the influence of the oil price to Chinese economy.