Term Risk Study Of The Chinese Bond Market

The risk of Chinese Government debt bond market under the interest rate term's structure has been researched in this paper. So-called the interest rate term structure in the paper, is the different term structural analysis and estimation in government debt bond market .The influent factor of the interest term include: the capital long period benefit ,the short-term interest rate , the expected inflation, macro variable ability of adaption. At Present, our country enact the defined interest rate policy, the interest rate is not marketed, but our country reinforce market economy, the method of government debt bond market clean price trade is adopted , the government bond debt index of the stock exchange institution of Shanghai, the usage of the USA bid in the government debt bond market ,the market factors are more and more t influence the government debt bond market benefit, the marketed interest rate is on the agenda. The latest research to government debt bond market risk under the interest rate term is researched. Theory is combined with substantial evidence analysis. Main research in this text results are:(l) From the micro financial risk's view , according to the motion of the instant rate of return in government debt bond market, through the principle composition analysis method, it may exist the variations for our country the government debt bond market to cause the misharped factor of risk. From the substantial evidence, four variable factor of the debt bond market risk have been concluded by use of spssl0.0 software. (2) The basic principle of modern risk management is applied. To aim at the present shortcomings of Chinese debt bond market risk that the government debt bond price to deviate value, under the interest rate term, the developed Vasicek mode is used by use of eviews software. Government debt bond market risk is priced. (3) making use of the advanced risk level measured model of GARCH, the day benefit rate of government debt bond index is research, the efficiency of our government debt bond market is tested byuse of eviews software.