The Study Of The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy - On The Implications For China And Learn From

The research of the efficiency question of monetary policy can be divided into three following levels basically: (1) Can money influence the real economy? If the change of money supplies leads to real macroeconomic variables (such as real output) change, then monetary policy is considered effectual; if the change of money supplies only causes nominal macroeconomic variables (such as nominal output, prices levels ,etc) change, then we may think that monetary policy is ineffectual. (2) How does an authority of currency choose and implement monetary policy properly and realize the goal of macro economy? It is a practice question that monetary policy must answer, including researches of main issues such as monetary policy targets, monetary policy tools, monetary policy rules, etc. (3 ) How does monetary policy influence the real economic variables? Transmission mechanism of monetary policy must be studied primarily. Monetary policy may exert influence to each part of the aggregate demand through various kinds of ways (such as interest rate, exchange rate, credit, assets price, etc.) , and reflect on the change of price level finally. Researching the transmission mechanism can help us to analyze the perturbation impact on economic variables of monetary policy deeply and carefully.This paper consists of four chapters altogether.In chapter one, we analyze the views of the effect of monetary policy of economists of different schools. On the whole, Keynesian economists think the monetary policy can play a role in stabilizing economic fluctuation because of the existence of salary and price rigidities, but New-classical economists debate that monetary policy is invalid. We think economists of different schools have different views on the result of monetary policy,the basic reason lies in views on the speed of price adjustment of different schools are different.In chapter two, we study operation rules of e monetary policy. We analyze the debates about "discretionary rule" vs. "single law" between doctrine Keynesianeconomists and Monetarists at first, and then we analyze the time inconsistent problem, proposing the reference meaning of monetary policy rules to our country.In chapter three, we study the transmission mechanism question of monetary policy. Monetary policy is conducted through the money and credit channel mainly. Through analyzing, we think that the credit channel is the main channel in China at present, and give advice on furthering transmission efficiency of Chinese monetary policy.In chapter four, we study the evolutionary law of intermediate targets in foreign countries firstly. On the basis of this, we analyze about our country's intermediate target of monetary policy at present. We argue that, as an intermediate target, money supplies is still reasonable, at the same time, we point out that inflation targeting is an orientation to the adjustment to intermediate target of Chinese monetary policy.