| During the Southeast Asian crisis, China survived the crisis thanks to strict capital account control, although China's exchange rate pegged to U.S. dollar like other emerging countries or regions (below called as emerging countries) in the Southeast Asia. A large number of surplus in balance of payment in recent years, the western countries' pressure on the appreciation of RMB since 2003, and the surge of the foreign exchange reserve, challenge the existing exchange rate regime of Chinese RMB. It is urgent to make some adjustment to the exchange rate regime of Chinese RMB. As an emerging country China is incorporating into the international capital market day by day, but its financial degree of opening is lower than other emerging countries. Evolution of exchange rate regime in emerging countries during the liberalization of capital account should be good lesson to China.This thesis is written according to the following logic: first of all, through understanding exchange rate regime in the whole world and existing exchange rate regime theories, drawing the general conclusion on the choice of exchange rate regimes; secondly, combining the theories on exchange rate regime with characteristics of emerging countries and analyzing the experience and lessons on the choice of regime; finally, from the perspective of " Impossible Trinity ", proving RMB exchange rate regime should carry on dynamic changes with the changes in economic environment. The thesis consists of four chapters altogether: Chapter I summarizes the classification of exchange rate regime and distribution of the regime of exchange rate in the whole world. First, defines the regime of exchange rate. Exchange rate regime means a series of regulations and acts to define value and the change modes of exchange rate. Then, compares the criteria for classification. And also summarizes the meanings and pluses and minuses of 8 kinds of exchange rate regimes under IMF1999 classification standard. Finally, uses the latest reports of IMF to prove that the regime of exchange rate is unbalanced in the global distribution. Distribution of the exchange rate regimes concentrates on four classes: exchange arrangements with no separate legal tender, conventional fixed peg arrangements, managed floating with no preannounced path for exchange rate, independent floating. Chapter II reviewes the general theories on the choice of the regime of exchange rate according to the historical sequences and offers the theoretical foundation to analyze exchange rate regime of the emerging countries and China. Optimum Currency Area theory represents traditional theory on the choice of exchange rate regime and offers a lot of practical standards; Mundell-Fleming model and "Impossible Trinity" are theoretical foundations of this thesis, but it is suggested that the theory should be expanded in order to explaining the association between intermediate exchange rate regime and monetary policy independence; BBC rule, "hollowing-out of intermediate regimes" and "original sin" and "fear of floating" is the new development on exchange rate regime. Finally, points out that the choice of the regime of exchange rate is a dynamic course, not merely a static problem. Meanwhile, like other economic policies, the choice of exchange rate regime may reflect the policy policymaker and public partiality, not only determined by the economic environment. On long terms, the choice of exchange rate regime is not once and for all, there is no single currency regime is right for all countries or at all time. Chapter III studies the characteristics of emerging countries and theories explaining the exchange rate regime of emerging countries, and draws some conclusions through case study on specific countries. First, defines the meaning of the emerging country. According to the definition of IMF, the emerging countries referred to the countries whose financial market is immature but already open to foreign investors. This thesis defines emerging countries as co... |
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