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Probe Of Social Risk Early Warning Methods

Posted on:2005-02-11Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:X F LuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360122480657Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Social risk refers to the uncertainty that endangers the social stabilities, equilibrium and development. Generally speaking, our social risk management gets along with economic mechanism very well, but because of the relationship and sequence between the reformation and social risk management, it's inevitable that social risk management policy often lags behind the reform。This kind of lagging makes social risk management unable to resolve the rough social problems that are produced by the reform in time. Therefore, it's necessary to appraise and supervise the social risk, to the effect that we can detect the incompatibility between the policies and the development of the society, and make necessary adjustment in time. Hereafter we can say, it's important and urgent to build up a social risk pre-warning system immediately.In fact, a successful set of social risk pre-warning system can function in the governing at least in five aspects: ①macro management;②being a brain man;③micro management;④crisis management;⑤virtual reality evaluating and virtual reality management。Most of the existing social risk pre-warning systems are based on linear function and threshold value, which is labeled standard method by the author. They usually grade the degree of risk by a dependant variable, which is decided by a linear function. When the variable surpasses the threshold value, the social risk pre-warning systems give out an alarm. The coefficients of the linear function and the threshold value –even including the independent variables- are evaluated through Delphi method. The shortcomings of this method include: At first, the linear combination of independent variables cannot exactly express the degree of risk; Secondly, it's very difficult to pass the dimension verifying because it adds up factors of different properties. Thirdly, they cannot react smartly; Fourthly, they are not feasible in finance. In order to diminish these deficiencies, the author tries to employ new technology from mathematics and information to find out a new way to build up social risk pre-warning system. In the first chapter, the author defines social risk, and depicted its characters. Then he puts forward the task to quantify the social risk. During quantifying he leads in the notion of social risk cost. In the second chapter, the author introduces the principals and gist of social risk pre-warning, and presents the train of thoughts of pre-warning. A well-going social risk pre-warning system must tally with accuracy, betimes, feasibility, expansibility, and economic. The train of thoughts of pre-warning has three directions: the normal method, the mathematical and logical method, and the artificial intellective method. In the third chapter the author discusses the constitution of the social risk index system. He classifies the indexes at first, and then presents the nine principles for constructing the social risk index system. After that he introduces the achievement of researchers both domestic and abroad. On this basis the author analyzes and explains some social risk indexes. In the fourth chapter the author analyzes the standard method to construct social risk pre-warning system. At first he suggests selecting indexes according to the classification. Then he discusses the machining on social risk indexes. At the end, he describes the process to calculate the threshold value, and leads in risk elasticity during his explanation. The fifth chapter is about the application of mathematics in the process of social risk pre-warning. The author explains his train of thoughts to evaluate the social risk cost at first, and then discusses how to analyze the social risk index system dynamically. After that he builds up a mathematical model to research the social risk contingency fund, and demonstrates how to evaluate and ameliorate the threshold value of social risk aroused by unemployment. In the sixth chapter, the author explains the future of the application of information technology in social risk pre-warnin...
Keywords/Search Tags:social risk, pre-warning, social risk cost, threshold value of risk
PDF Full Text Request
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