Sustainability Of The National Debt Policy Research

In 1998, our country began to practice the positive public financial policy under the macro-economical situation which is characterized as the Asian financial crisis and deficient domestic demand. The national debts policy which is one of the main contents of positive public financial policy plays an important role in enlarging domestic demand and promoting economic increase. But, these two years, with the macro-economical situation getting better and the scale of national debts expanding increasingly, the continuable problem of national debts attracts more and more attention. Under the guidance of professor Wu, the writer research on this problem and name it "Continuable Research of Present National Debts Policy in Our Country".The article contains three parts. The main ideas in each chapter are expressed as follows:The preface expatiates on the basic concept of the characters of continuable national debts policy and the background and the way of thinking in the research.Chapter one is to research on the economical necessity of the continuance of national debts policy. First, analyzes the relation between national debts policy and economical increase, economical fluctuation, inflation and crowding out effect. Second, develops positive analysis combined with the present economical situation in our country. Then we get the conclusion that it is unnecessary to continue the present national debts policy for the purpose of economical need.Chapter two is to research on the economical possibility of the continuance of national debts policy. This chapter includes of three sections. Section one analyzes the double performance of national debts risk which refers to and risk in use. Section two analyzes the quantitative risk of national debts risk. It analyzes three indexes which are public debt-to-GDP ratio, public debt dependency and government debt-service ratio. It also analyzes the problem of hidden debts in detail. The last section discusses the risk in use. By the research of this chapter, we get the conclusion that it is impossible to continue the present national debts policy for thepurpose of economical enduring ability.Chapter three gives conclusions and brings up some suggestions for the policy. It points that the later emphases of investing the fund of national debts are the construction of rural basic establishments and basic education, large development of western areas, supporting the adjustment and reconstruction of northeast industrial base, environmental construction and environmental protection.