The Shandong Provincial Government External Debt And Risk Management Study

Practice shows that government foreign loan plays an important role in accelerating the development of economics and society. At the same time, the dual nature of government foreign loan decides the risk of government foreign loan is objectively existent and shows with various forms. It is related closely to financial risk, and it is the important factor that causes local financial risk, seriously, it will be dangerous to national economy and social stability. But now, the government risk management system of foreign loan of Shandong province is not perfect, including: (1)the scale of foreign loan program and control system is imperfect; (2)domestic supplemental condition is incomplete;(3)loan project running is non-standard;(4)loan default is serious . If these problems are not solved in time, these can make the risk of foreign loan out of control and increase the rate of debt crisis. Therefore we must realize the risk of foreign loan, reinforce the research and management and establish effective measures to dissolve it.This paper emphasizes four aspects of Shandong foreign loan risk management which is based on the actual case of exceptional quantity of the existing local foundation of the government risk management research and practice of foreign loan with datas, and tries to make some new creation. Firstly, sums up and analyses originally 5 kinds of forms of the risk of foreign loan of Shandong province : the scale of foreign loan risk, the structural risk of foreign loan, the risk of exchange rate, the risk of interest rate and buying risk. Secondly, analyses systematically the main problems in Shandong foreign loan risk management, including no plan as a whole in using foreign loans, supervising system is imperfect, using loans illegally, heavy historical debts and so on. Thirdly, under the situation of lacking a perfect foreign loan risk management system in Shandong province, advocates to use government foreign loans actively and effectively, establish supervising system of foreign loan, strengthen some countermeasures, for instance, mentioned in the countermeasures, "bring government foreign loans within finance budget system", this will be a direction of finance system reform. Finally, under the situation of lacking supervising system both academically and practically, attempts to establish a set of supervising and evaluating system of Shandong local government foreign loan. This system includes evaluating index and evaluating standard, index analysis and index check-up, reward and punishment system; setup four kinds of indexes: "macroeconomic index", "nominal foreign loan index", "foreign loan payment index", "financial affairs evaluating index of new project". Some of these standards will be re-adjusted in practice.This paper originally investigates the foreign loan risk and countermeasures of Shandong province, it's important to realize government foreign loan risk as a whole and prevent debt crisis both in theory and in reality.