China Stock Market Speculation

Our country's stock market was established in 1990. It has a history of more than ten years already. The stock market has become an important component of China's economy, and is one of the most important parts which represents the development of our capital market. In order to make the stock market more active and effective, we must solve various problems appearing in our stock market.The thesis discusses the speculativeness in the stock market. The speculation was considered serious in the past. It is an important policy to limit the speculation in the stock market. In recent yeas, we find the speculativeness is weakened constantly. The aim of this thesis is to analyze the speculative change accurately through positive ways. It describes the current situation, or offers us some realistic advice to help us make the correct direction of the reform.The thesis pays special attention to the classical theory and reality. And on the basis of the classical theory, the thesis analyzes the situation with a large number of facts and data. The main content and view of this thesis can be divided into four parts.Chapter One mainly discusses the problems about the definition of the speculation and the theory of the speculation. At first, it explains the definition of the speculation, and discusses the difference between the speculation and the investment. The author points out the meaning of the speculation. We should treat different speculation with different attitudes: encourage the normal speculation, bar the illegal speculation, and limit the excessive speculation. Then it summarizes the theories of speculation from two respects: the early speculative theory and the new development. The thesis states the speculation is popular in the stock market. At last, the thesis reviews the speculative appearances in these years.Chapter Two is the key part of this thesis. There are some innovations in the section. In the past, most people studied this issue from theoretical perspective. The thesis aims to judge speculativeness by positive ways. The thesis constructs a set of index system: P/E ratio, exchange ratio and turnover ratio, and it analyzes the change of these indexes from 1993 to 2003. At last, according to the positive result, combine with practical situation, we can draw a conclusion: the speculativeness in our stock market has been weakened constantly.Chapter Three is divided into two parts. It analyzes the reasons why the speculativeness is weakened. On the one hand, due to these active reasons: the investors are more and more rational; the government's supervision is more and more effective, and so on. On the other hand, the thesis analyzes some passive reasons.Chapter Four is the summary of the whole thesis. The thesis points out the first period is in an irrational exuberance without foundation. Now, our stock market is undergoing the adjusting periods. Only after we solve many serious problems, the stock market can have a good development. According to the current situation, the author thinks the stock market should achieve the rational exuberance, which is not only regular, but also prosperous. At last, the author puts forward some measures to achieve rational exuberance, such as standardize the listed companies, and so on.This topic and analytic ways are novel. It reviews and summarizes the history of our stock market. Because of the limitation of knowledge and experience, the thesis has some mistakes. The author asks every scholar to put forward the critical opinions and suggestions.