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Dalian City Residential Market Demand Forecast

Posted on:2005-01-25Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:H W LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2206360122997085Subject:Business management
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
House industry has significant influence on whole real estate, human settlements environment and social economy. Therefore, it is necessary to establish scientific prediction model to forecast the market demand of the house for the government.The dissertation makes a target of house market of Dalian.The dissertation analyzes the change characteristic and influence factor. Then it structures the short-term and long-term demand forecasting model respectively based on grey systematic theory and market demand theory. The dissertation also uses the two models to make the prediction for short-term and long-term demand in Dalian.Firstly, The dissertation analyzes change characteristic and general house demand influence factor. Based on it ,it analyzes main influence factor to long-term demand and different stage house market demand of Dalian city house market using grey system related degrees of law and concludes that the house demand market of Dalian is a dynamic complicated system. According to the conclusion of non-linear prediction theory, the dissertation adopts the research route of rition short-term forcast and ration combining with qualitative long-term demand forecasting of house market.Secondly, the dissertation analyzes the feasibility using grey systematic theory to predict short-term demand of house market in Dalian, constructs the short-term demand forecast equation of house market based on grey systematic model, forecasts the short-term demand of house market in Dalian.Thirdly, the dissertation puts forward two assumptions and constructs the theory model of long-term demand forecasting of house market based on demand forecasting theory. Through the transformation and thinning to prediction index, the dissertation provides the universal application models and discusses the calculation method of each index. And then, the dissertation predicts the long-term demand of house market in Dalian.Lastly, the dissertation finds that house price , per capita living space, GDP, family income are key influence factors of market demand. Besides,the dissertation concludes that the long-term demand potentiality of house market in Dalian is enormous and short-term demand is overheated. Furthermore, the dissertation Provides the policy recommendationsThe short-term demand forcast thinking and long-term demand forcast model of house market used in Dalian don't localize in Dalian, that are applicable to other cities.
Keywords/Search Tags:demand forecasting, Grey systematic theory, Market demand theory, The proportions of the price of the house and income, Predict models
PDF Full Text Request
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