China's Enterprise Commodity Futures Hedging Risk Management

More and more enterprises are using the futures market for hedge purposes with our country's entry of WTO. More and more emphases are put on how to control the, enterprises' hedge risks and then improve their hedge effects. Risk control is critical to the enterprises' hedge management. The problems existed in the enterprises' risks management are analyzed deeply and fully in this thesis. Some of the viewpoints, methods and conclusions are very important to our enterprises and our futures market.There are four parts in this thesis altogether. The topic of this thesis is explained, different hedge theories are concluded and appraised, the current studies on hedge risks management problems are discussed, and the clue of this thesis and the methods used are given in the first part. In the second part, the Fault Tree Analysis method is used to study the risks faced with the hedge enterprises in a overall and systematic perspectives. All the risks are analyzed and their reasons are studied fully and deeply. In the third part, the method of system innpvation is put forward to control the hedge risks. Systematic innovations of the basic hedge management system of our futures market, the internal hedge management system of the enterprises, and the hedge service and management system of the brokerage firms are included. In the fourth part, the method of technological innovation is introduced to avoid some of the hedge risks. First, artificial neutral network expert system is adopted to fqrecast the price movements of futures contracts, and then the futures hedge decision support system is developed to control all kinds of basis risks.